Watches, Warnings, and Advisories
Mesoscale Discussion 0591 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017 Areas affected...southeast Texas through western Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 291419Z - 291615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Cluster of storms over southeast TX will pose some risk for isolated strong to damaging wind gusts, large hail and possibly a brief tornado as it continues northeast this morning. Need for a WW remains uncertain at this time due to potential limiting factors for a more sustained severe threat, but trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...Small cluster of storms over southeast TX appears to have initiated in association with an upper vorticity maximum depicted on the RAP near the TX coast and is also evident on WV imagery. The atmosphere is strongly unstable based on the 12Z RAOB and latest RAP analysis, but a capping inversion near 700 mb at base of the elevated-mixed layer, along with widespread low clouds will continue to limit low-level lapse rates and provide a somewhat hostile environment for robust low-level updraft accelerations. Despite these limiting factors, moist and unstable inflow from a 50+ kt sly low-level jet may be sufficient to help sustain activity another few hours through southeast TX into western LA. While 0-1 km hodographs are large and would support a conditional risk for at least transient low-level mesocyclones, winds at or above 500 mb and vertical shear through a deeper layer are relatively weak which should provide a limiting factor for sustained updraft rotation. However, activity will pose a near-term threat for mainly isolated large hail and damaging wind and will continue to be monitored for possible organization. ..Dial/Weiss.. 04/29/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 31509296 30349307 29879421 30349474 30999437 31679396 31799339 31509296Read more
Advisory Information Unavailable, error fetching or reading data from the NOAA advisories server.