Watches, Warnings, and Advisories
SPC MD 324
MD 0324 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83...84... FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS INTO SOUTHEAST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0324
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0616 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025
Areas affected...central/southern MS into southeast LA
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 83...84...
Valid 311116Z - 311245Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 83, 84
continues.
SUMMARY...A line of convection will continue shifting east/southeast
across central/southern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana this
morning, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts.
DISCUSSION...A robust line of convection, with embedded bowing
elements, will continue to shift east/southeast across the MCD area
this morning. A recent gust of at least 65 mph was noted at KJAN
with the northern bowing segment. A couple of intense bowing
segments have occasionally been noted across parts of south-central
LA. This activity is expected to continue producing severe/damaging
gusts with eastward extent through the morning given favorable
downstream instability and an increasing 850 mb southwesterly
low-level jet. Regional VWP data do indicated some modestly enlarged
low-level hodographs. However, 0-1 km shear is fairly weak, around
15-25 kt amid poor low-level lapse rates. This should temper the
tornado risk, though a brief spin-up could occur given the very
moist boundary layer and at least modest low-level instability.
..Leitman.. 03/31/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 32658950 32408861 31588825 30948834 30178872 29688957
29599086 29659207 29739249 29929270 30119277 30309262
30839183 31689072 32658950
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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SPC MD 323
MD 0323 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85... FOR NORTHEAST MS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AL
Mesoscale Discussion 0323
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0604 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025
Areas affected...northeast MS into north-central AL
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 85...
Valid 311104Z - 311230Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 85
continues.
SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential will spread east into portions of
northern/north-central AL this morning.
DISCUSSION...A QLCS/bowing line of convection near the northeast MS
state line will continue to shift east into portions of
northern/north-central AL this morning. Radar trends from KGWX
showed a few mesovortices/areas of rotation as this line approached
the radar. This indicates potential for locally enhanced damaging
gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. Regional VWP data shows modestly
enlarged low-level hodographs with 0-1 km shear around 25-35 kt on
the nose of an increasing southwesterly low-level jet. This may be
sufficient for a brief tornado, though the predominant risk is
expected to remain damaging gusts as the line of convection
continues east through the morning hours.
..Leitman.. 03/31/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 34308872 34368844 34228729 33998665 33718651 33388664
33178712 33088750 33088831 33118873 33198931 33698900
34308872
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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SPC MD 322
MD 0322 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST MS INTO SOUTHERN AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0322
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0525 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025
Areas affected...southeast MS into southern AL and the western FL
Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 311025Z - 311200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase over the next
couple of hours. Watch issuance is likely.
DISCUSSION...A consolidating line of convection with a few embedded
bowing segments will continue to shift east across southern MS and
southeast LA. This activity is expected to the move across portions
of southern AL into the western FL Panhandle this morning into
midday, maintained by favorable vertical shear and moderate
instability. Recent radar trends have shown periodic intense bows
with line-embedded cells, posing a risk for damaging gusts. This
trend should continue with eastward extent into the MCD area. Storm
mode may limit hail potential, though isolated hail to around 1 inch
diameter is possible. Regional VWP data shows modest 0-1 km shear,
and given some boundary-layer inhibition and poor low-level lapse
rates, tornado potential while non-zero, is expected to remain low.
A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the next hour
or so as the line of convection to the west approaches the eastern
bounds of WW 83 and WW 84.
..Leitman.. 03/31/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 30948984 32178811 32098700 31768645 30908642 30098694
29818843 29888928 30458974 30948984
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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