Watches, Warnings, and Advisories
SPC MD 519
MD 0519 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 133... FOR NORTHERN KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0519
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0935 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Areas affected...northern Kansas/southern Nebraska
Concerning...Tornado Watch 133...
Valid 260235Z - 260330Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 133 continues.
SUMMARY...Tornado risk has diminished, but hail risk will continue
across portions of the WW area and eastward into central
Nebraska/north-central Kansas. New WW will be proposed.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar shows that storms continue to evolve into
a more clustered mode, and mainly to the north of the surface front
as a low-level jet continues to increase. Resulting warm advection
atop the surface front will continue to support thunderstorm
development/maintenance, given moderate elevated CAPE indicated
across the area. While tornado threat should continue to decrease,
potential for hail in the 1" to 1.75" range over the next few hours
supports consideration of severe thunderstorm watch issuance, with
the tornado watch set to expire at 26/03Z.
..Goss.. 04/26/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...
LAT...LON 40330169 41419981 41599876 41279782 40629734 39839796
39170007 39220198 40330169
Read more
SPC MD 518
MD 0518 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0518
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0919 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Areas affected...portions of west and northwest Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 260219Z - 260345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Severe threat is increasing through the evening/overnight.
A watch will likely be needed soon.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has been noted near the
Permian Basin across southwestern Texas. Expectations are for
further development to continue through the next few hours, with
upscale growth into a potential MCS overnight. Given the potential
for upscale growth, the main threats will likely be damaging winds
and hail. A tornado or two will be possible, given favorable
deep-layer shear. A watch will likely be needed within the hour.
..Thornton/Edwards.. 04/26/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 31630301 31690332 31940338 32190336 32780303 33700195
34260082 34480007 34429968 34149888 34009866 33909841
33029927 32249987 31870147 31610244 31630301
Read more
SPC MD 516
MD 0516 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 134... FOR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0516
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Areas affected...northern Texas Panhandle...central Oklahoma
Panhandle...and southwestern Kansas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 134...
Valid 260042Z - 260245Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 134 continues.
SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across WW134. Additional
thunderstorm development possible over the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery across the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles continues to show areas of towering cumulus clustered
along the dryline. Thus far, attempts at initiation have been
unsuccessful. The 00z RAOB from AMA indicates MLCIN has eroded amid
steep lapse rates throughout the profile. Given the increase
expected in the low-level jet through the next couple of hours and
additional synoptic forcing for ascent, further scattered
thunderstorm development will be possible. Recent CAM guidance
supports this notion, though there are difference in timing/location
of initiation within this region. Surface objective analysis
indicates around 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE with deep layer shear at
50-55 kts. Given initially modest forcing and south-southwesterly
deep layer flow, storms will initiate along the dryline before
moving north eastward with the initial threat of large hail and
damaging winds. Any cells that maintain strength through the evening
will see an increasing threat for tornadoes as the low-level jet
increases enlarging hodographs and increasing low-level shear.
..Thornton/Edwards.. 04/26/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 36280226 36760226 37170218 37470207 37840191 38240164
38550134 38680089 38719994 38449986 37700008 37040024
36360056 36010089 35640140 35650152 35560180 35510206
35600217 35650240 36280226
Read more