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SPC MD 591

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Mesoscale Discussion 0591
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0919 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Areas affected...southeast Texas through western Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 291419Z - 291615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Cluster of storms over southeast TX will pose some risk
for isolated strong to damaging wind gusts, large hail and possibly
a brief tornado as it continues northeast this morning. Need for a
WW remains uncertain at this time due to potential limiting factors
for a more sustained severe threat, but trends will continue to be

DISCUSSION...Small cluster of storms over southeast TX appears to
have initiated in association with an upper vorticity maximum
depicted on the RAP near the TX coast and is also evident on WV
imagery. The atmosphere is strongly unstable based on the 12Z RAOB
and latest RAP analysis, but a capping inversion near 700 mb at base
of the elevated-mixed layer, along with widespread low clouds will
continue to limit low-level lapse rates and provide a somewhat
hostile environment for robust low-level updraft accelerations.
Despite these limiting factors, moist and unstable inflow from a 50+
kt sly low-level jet may be sufficient to help sustain activity
another few hours through southeast TX into western LA. While 0-1 km
hodographs are large and would support a conditional risk for at
least transient low-level mesocyclones, winds at or above 500 mb and
vertical shear through a deeper layer are relatively weak which
should provide a limiting factor for sustained updraft rotation.
However, activity will pose a near-term threat for mainly isolated
large hail and damaging wind and will continue to be monitored for
possible organization.

..Dial/Weiss.. 04/29/2017

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   31509296 30349307 29879421 30349474 30999437 31679396
            31799339 31509296 

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